The global market for LED replacement lamps will show unit growth of 30% during 2012-2016, projects market research firm Strategies Unlimited.
However, revenue will grow from $2.2bn in 2011 to $3.7bn in 2016, moderated by a forecast 14% annual decline in average selling price (ASP).
The research covered LED lamps that are used in existing sockets and serve as replacements for legacy lighting sources in residential and commercial indoor applications.
On the supply side, manufacturers will continue to benefit from the oversupply of LEDs and governmental subsidies that aim to advance the adoption of LED lighting, says Strategies Unlimited.
On the demand side, the LED replacement market unit growth rate is expected to be the highest in China, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 44%. In 2011, the LED replacement A19 bulbs were the highest-selling product, with Japan leading the number of units sold. Sales of PAR LED lamps and LED MR16 were driven mostly by commercial applications in developed economies. However, this trend will be reversed as the construction sector recovers in developing countries, reckons the market research firm.
LED replacements for linear fluorescent lamps yielded the highest unit sales numbers in China and Japan, but between 2010 and 2011 the ASP declined at 23%. The US and European markets yielded fewer sales due to stricter requirements for product quality.